How Many Sears Homes were Built?

In this post I will re-examine another common “fact” about Sears homes that is frequently mentioned in the media and on internet sites.

How many Sears homes were built?

• "Sears, Roebuck & Company sold approximately 50,000 kit homes nationally...."
• “ From 1908–1940, Sears, Roebuck and Co. sold about 70,000 - 75,000 homes through their mail-order Modern Homes program."
• "From 1908 to 1940, between 75,000 and 100,000 houses--all components manufactured by Sears--were made available through the company's catalog."
• "From 1908 to 1940, Sears, Roebuck and Co. sold more than 100,000 house kits by mail, mostly to the burgeoning middle class."

There's a big difference between 50,000 sold and over 100,000 sold.  (And we've already learned that Sears continued to sell homes through 1942, not 1940.)

Where did these estimates come from?
When the book Houses by Mail: A Guide to Houses from Sears, Roebuck and Company was published in 1986, the authors stated that 100,000 Sears homes were sold, based on a total touted in some Sears advertisements. 

In the 1990 book, America's Favorite Homes: Mail-Order Catalogues as a Guide to Popular Early 20th-Century Houses, authors Robert A. Schweitzer and Michael W. R. Davis debunked the 100,000 figure. They said that that number may have included all structures built by Sears or built using Sears building materials. Schweitzer maintained Sears sold about 50,000 kit homes.

In her 2004 book, Putting Sears Homes on the Map, Rebecca Hunter estimated Sears sold 56,000-70,000 homes.

Let’s take a closer look at the source information.

The facts
Sears, Roebuck discarded the sales records for the Modern Homes department. There is no way to know the actual number of homes that were sold. The best we can do is estimate based on information in the Modern Homes catalogs, information provided to the press at the time, and the financials in the Sears, Roebuck and Co. annual reports.

Year	Source	Fact reported	Increase over prior year	Running total of sold homes	Notes

1912

Sears merchandise catalog

1,340 sold

1,340

Assume this is correct. Business just getting off the ground.

1915	Merchandise catalog	Over 3,000 sold		3,000
Nov 1916	1917 Modern Homes catalog	16,000		16,000	Huge leap here. Number is not possible unless 1915 number was an old total.
July and Sept 1924	Display ads	30,000 sold		30,000	This seems like a reasonable number, on the high side. Sears first started selling homes in 1908. In 1931, Business Week stated that Sears sold about 3,000 houses a year starting around 1920.  So if they sold 12,000 between 1920 and 1924, they sold 17,000 in the prior 11 years.
1925	1926 Modern Homes catalog	34,000 sold	4,000	34,000	Again, this number seems consistent with a 4k increase over the previous year.
January 1926	Display ad	34,000 sold		34,000
October 1926	Display ad	37,000 sold		37,000
1926	Annual report	$8.4 million in sales	3,300 (my estimate based on sales)	37,300
June 1927	Display ad	37,500 sold		37,500
October 1927	Display ad	41,200 sold		41,200
January 1928	Display ad	41,200 sold		41,200
April and May 1928	Display ad	41,200 sold		41,200
August 1928	Display ad	42,700 sold		42,700
Fall 1928	1929 Modern Homes catalog	More than 44,200 homes sold		44,200
Spring 1929	1929 Brick Veneer Catalog	45,900 sold		45,900
April 1929	Display ad	46,900 sold		46,900
1929	News article		2,483	49,383
May 1930	News article	55,000 built by May, 1930		55,000
April 1931	News article			58,000	More than 58,000 according to April 1931 press release
Oct 1931	News article			60,000	reported by head of Pittsburgh office
Feb 1933	News article			61,300	Harvey L. Harris said Sears sold about 1300 houses in 1932
1933	Annual report	Sales $3,575,878		62,300
1934		Sales $357,000		45?!	In early 1934 the Modern Homes department was discontinued.
1935	Wall Street Journal and Vancouver Sun			100,000	Impossible! This number was provided by Sears to the press.
1935	1936 Modern Homes catalog			100,000	Impossible!This figure cited twice in the catalog.
1936	Business Week	Sales of $2 million	260	63,000	Sears resumed the Modern Homes business.
1937	Business Week	Sales of 3.5 million	455	63,500
1938	Business Week	Sales of 2.75 million	357	64,000
1939			1,200	65,200	Very strong year, according to Wall Street Journal. Sales on target to hit $7M.
1940-1942				65,900	No sales data. Estimate 400 for 1940 and 150 per year for 1941-1942.
				TOTAL between 65-67k

Based on this data, I would estimate the total houses Sears sold to be between 65,000 and 67,000.
 
The commonly reported 100,000 value is out of touch with reality, although it was reported by Sears in their catalogs. The 50,000 low-ball estimate is also out of line since Sears hit that milestone about 1930 and sold houses for 12 years after that.